Model:

Times Series from the ECMWF

Güncelleme:
Update monthly
Greenwich Mean Time:
12:00 UTC = 15:00 EET
Resolution:
1.0° x 1.0°
Parametre:
Yükseltgenmiş Indeks
Tarife:

Yükseltgenmiş Indeks (LI), 500 milibara( yaklaşık 5.5000m veya 18,000 fit) ulaşan ve 500mbar’daki çevresel sıcaklık ile gerçek sıcaklığın farkı ile bulunan, yükselen hava kütlesinin sıcaklığı olarak tanımlanır. Eğer Yükseltgenmiş Indeks büyük negatif bir sayı ise, yükselen hava kütlesi etrafına oranla daha sıcaktır ve yükselmeye devam eder. Gökgürültüsü ve orajlar hızla yükselen hava ile beslenirler, bu yüzden Yükseltgenmiş Indeks atmosferin üretebileceği potansiyel yıldırım ve şimşek riski açısından iyi bir ölçektir.

The Lifted Index (LI)
RANGE IN K
COLOR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY
more than 11
BLUE
Extremely stable conditions
Thunderstorms unlikely
8 to 11
LIGHT BLUE
Very stable conditions
Thunderstorms unlikely
4 to 7
GREEN
Stable conditions
Thunderstorms unlikely
0 to 3
LIGHT GREEN
Mostly stable conditions
Thunderstorm unlikely
-3 to -1
YELLOW
Slightly unstable
Thunderstorms possible
-5 to -4
ORANGE
Unstable
Thunderstorms probable
-7 to -6
RED
Highly unstable
Severe thunderstorms possible
less than -7
VIOLET
Extremely unstable
Violent thunderstorms, tornadoes possible

Introduction to seasonal forecasting:
The production of seasonal forecasts, also known as seasonal climate forecasts, has undergone a huge transformation in the last few decades: from a purely academic and research exercise in the early '90s to the current situation where several meteorological forecast services, throughout the world, conduct routine operational seasonal forecasting activities. Such activities are devoted to providing estimates of statistics of weather on monthly and seasonal time scales, which places them somewhere between conventional weather forecasts and climate predictions.
 
In that sense, even though seasonal forecasts share some methods and tools with weather forecasting, they are part of a different paradigm which requires treating them in a different way. Instead of trying to answer to the question "how is the weather going to look like on a particular location in an specific day?", seasonal forecasts will tell us how likely it is that the coming season will be wetter, drier, warmer or colder than 'usual' for that time of year. This kind of long term predictions are feasible due to the behaviour of some of the Earth system components which evolve more slowly than the atmosphere (e.g. the ocean, the cryosphere) and in a predictable fashion, so their influence on the atmosphere can add a noticeable signal.
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